Here are ingredients that I believe will generally produce a years-long campaign:
- A group of friends, friends who would want to spend time with each other with or without DnD. Between 4 and 9 total, DM included; too many and the spotlight-splitting diminishes engagement, too few and the interpersonal dynamics aren't robust enough to support extended play. Always err on the side of less players, and on the side of better players over better friends.
- A reliable schedule that works for the players consistently and the DM constantly. Avoid playing with less than 3/4 of the players, or scheduling on a session-by-session basis, at all costs.
- A sufficiently compelling campaign that, on average, playing it is a better experience then sitting and chatting with the same snacks, and that at its best, playing it is a better experience than any board or video game.
- Start with as gripping a session as you can run, then spend several sessions doing the simplest play possible, folding out from there as slowly as can be organic and satisfying. Leading with your best, highest-concept material will make sure it gets to the table, but it also makes it easy to walk away with satisfaction after having experienced it.
- Ensure the party, in every moment, has some goal, ideally one that will motivate them further into the unknown. Prioritize clear trajectory, even over realism. A secret uncovered too fast is a point of pride, a mystery that can't be solved is worse than a waste of time.
The dividends of these bullets will be, I think, a game that will survive. Doubtless you've had a long-running campaign that hasn't met these criteria, or you have some insight into this alchemy I don't. I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Thanks for reading, and happy gaming.
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